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Session S25 - New Methods and Emerging Applications in Dynamics, Networks, and Control

Monday, July 12, 19:10 ~ 19:40 UTC-3

Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics and Control Strategies in Close-Contact facilities

Anuj Mubayi

Illinois State University, United States   -   This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused havoc in all walks of our life and for each and every sub-populations. Since SARS-COV-2, a novel coronavirus, has been identified in 2019, local and national public health departments have tried different kinds of control policies to constrain its outbreaks with varied success. Cumulative global deaths related to COVID-19 have been continuously on rise, especially due to considerable mortality among the vulnerable populations such as residents of long-term care facilities. In this talk, I will discuss our recent study, where we developed and analyzed mathematical models that captured infection dynamics in a close-contact place and estimated the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 virus via distinct mechanisms in the presence of unprecedented control measures. The aim of the study was to identify key factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and outbreaks among staff, residents and visitors in long-term care facilities. Using reported data from long-term care facilities in USA and optimal control methods, we investigated the influence of the different control measures on the size of COVID-19 outbreak in these locations. Identified optimal data-driven strategies have highlighted pressure points of the disease system in the close-contacts places. There is not a one size fits all approach to any aspect of COVID interventions, though, rapid adoption of certain measures could support efforts to protect this vulnerable group of society from future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Joint work with Aditi Ghosh (Texas A&M University-Commerce, USA),, Doménica N. Garzón (Yachay Tech University, Ecuador), and Padmanabhan Seshaiyer (George Mason University, USA).

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