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Session S01 - Modeling and Computation for Control and Optimization of Biological and Physical Systems

Thursday, July 15, 12:30 ~ 12:55 UTC-3

Coupling epidemiological models with social dynamics

Nicolas Saintier

Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina   -   This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In this work we study a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model coupled with a continuous opinion dynamics model. We assume that each individual can take measures to reduce the probability of contagion, and the level of effort each agent applies can change due to social interactions. We propose simple rules to model the propagation of behaviors that modify the level of effort, and analyze their impact on the dynamics of the disease.

We derive a set of two ordinary differential equations describing the dynamic of the proportion of the number of infected individuals and the mean value of the effort parameter, and analyze the equilibria of the system. The results we obtain are in complete agreement with the simulations of the agent-based model, and show that the social dynamic strongly mitigates the impact of the disease. This is quanified by a modified $R_0$ number we call the behaviorally reduced reproduction number.

Joint work with Carlo Giambiagi Ferrari (Conicet y Univ. Buenos Aires) and Juan Pablo Pinasco (Conicet y Univ. Buenos Aires).

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