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Session S15 - Mathematics of Planet Earth

Wednesday, July 14, 18:30 ~ 18:55 UTC-3

Dealing with uncertainties in weather and climate prediction: role of multiscaling through nonlinear resonance

Pedro Silva Dias

University of São Paulo, Brazil   -   This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Prediction of the climate system depends on an initial value problem based on a complex fluid mechanical system, involving interactions between several components (atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, criosphere) through conservation laws. Each component of the climate system is nonlinear and the interaction among components frequently involves highly nonlinear processes. In addition, the models are imperfect in view of the incomplete knowledge of the physical processes or the fact that processes of smaller resolution than the resolved scales are not always properly formulated. Each component of the climate system has characteristic spatial and temporal time scales. A simplified model based on the interaction of the atmosphere and ocean will be reviewed and explored from the point of view of phase space associated to the normal modes of each simplified model components (ocean and atmosphere). Basically, the original set of nonlinear partial differential equations of the simplified model in physical space will be solved in the phase space. Nonlinear resonance involving the interaction of ocean and atmospheric modes help understanding the dynamics of slow climatic variability in several relevant timescales. Relevant results come out of the analysis of the interacting resonating triads under the periodic or quasi-periodic solar forcing. This is particularly important topic to explore issues related to the attribution of causes to the observed climate change under the influence of global warming.

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