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Session S15 - Mathematics of Planet Earth

Thursday, July 15, 17:00 ~ 17:25 UTC-3

Decision Making: Combining Dynamical Systems with Participatory Modelling

Gerard Olivar-Tost

Universidad de Aysén, Chile   -   This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Participatory modelling is very well-known in social sciences. We use the integration of participatory modeling and system dynamics as a novel methodology for decision making. In our talk we include the consolidation of social dynamic models for the subsequent evaluation and prioritization of green projects in Colombian post-conflict communities.

Through participatory work carried out along with the Tame community, it was possible to identify, evaluate and systematize citizen factors in relation to the problems and needs of the region. As a second step, based on the results obtained, we calibrated a simulation model based on system dynamics that facilitates decision making with regards to the evaluation of green projects.

The proposed methodology allowed us to conclude that, with the participation of the community and with a model based on the dynamics of variables such as supply and demand for natural resources of water, and land use, it is possible to warn decision makers.

We identified the variables that can lead to the maximization of investments and thus prioritize and select the most appropriate environmental, social or economic initiatives, that certainly meet the needs or expectations of the involved community. In the future, the model could be used to facilitate the management, administration and control of water and land resources by creating alerts called reserve margins.

Joint work with Johnny Valencia-Calvo (Universidad de Aysén, Chile) and Julián Castrillón-Gómez (Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Colombia).

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