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Session S25 - New Methods and Emerging Applications in Dynamics, Networks, and Control

Monday, July 12, 19:50 ~ 20:20 UTC-3

COVID-19 epidemic scenarios based on observed key superdispersion events

Jorge Velasco-Hernandez

UNAM, Mexico   -   This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. document.getElementById('cloakb0a454b6a4bc750e51fbe532cb42f013').innerHTML = ''; var prefix = '&#109;a' + 'i&#108;' + '&#116;o'; var path = 'hr' + 'ef' + '='; var addyb0a454b6a4bc750e51fbe532cb42f013 = 'jx.v&#101;l&#97;sc&#111;' + '&#64;'; addyb0a454b6a4bc750e51fbe532cb42f013 = addyb0a454b6a4bc750e51fbe532cb42f013 + '&#105;m' + '&#46;' + '&#117;n&#97;m' + '&#46;' + 'mx'; var addy_textb0a454b6a4bc750e51fbe532cb42f013 = 'jx.v&#101;l&#97;sc&#111;' + '&#64;' + '&#105;m' + '&#46;' + '&#117;n&#97;m' + '&#46;' + 'mx';document.getElementById('cloakb0a454b6a4bc750e51fbe532cb42f013').innerHTML += '<a ' + path + '\'' + prefix + ':' + addyb0a454b6a4bc750e51fbe532cb42f013 + '\'>'+addy_textb0a454b6a4bc750e51fbe532cb42f013+'<\/a>';

Key high transmission dates for the year 2020 are used to create scenarios to model the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in several states of Mexico for 2021. These scenarios are obtained through the estimation of a time-dependent contact rate, where the main assumption is that the dynamic of the disease is heavily determined by the mobility and social activity of the population during holidays and other important calendar dates. First, changes in the effective contact rate on predetermined dates of 2020 are estimated. Then, using the instantaneous reproduction number to characterize the status of the epidemic ($R_t\approx 1$, $R_t>1$ or $R_t<1$) this information is used to propose different scenarios for the number of cases and deaths for 2021. The main assumption is that the effective contact rate during 2021 will maintain a similar trend to that observed during 2020 on key calendar dates. All other conditions are assumed to remain constant in the time scale of the projections. The objective is to generate a range of scenarios that could be useful to evaluate the possible evolution of the epidemic and its likely impact on incidence and mortality.

Joint work with Mario Santana Cibrian, Adrán Acuña Zegarra, Carlos E. Rodriguez Hernández-Vela and Ramsés Mena.